The historical relationship between gold and real interest rates — with and without a policy backdrop.
Claire Beaudoin · April 27, 2026 · 7 min read
The relationship, honestly stated
Gold pays no income, so the opportunity cost of holding it rises when inflation-adjusted yields rise. That is the entire mechanism, and it has held over long samples.
It has also broken down for multi-year stretches, usually when currency or credibility concerns dominate rate arithmetic.
Practical use
We use real yields as context, not as a signal. A portfolio built to survive being wrong about rates is more valuable than one built to be right about them.
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